NL East-leading Braves send Kawakami to hill in Florida

Baseball Betting Lines

09/03/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kenshin Kawakami returns to the Atlanta Braves this evening, as they try to hold onto their dwindling advantage in the National League East in the opener of a three-game set against the Florida Marlins at Sun Life Stadium.

Kawakami, who will be filling in for the injured Derek Lowe, has not pitched in the majors since a relief appearance back on July 16, but was 1-9 in 15 starts. Lowe has been battling elbow pain and received a cortisone shot last weekend.

"I didn't think I was going to miss a start," said Lowe, who should resume pitching in a few days. "So I can't say it's going to feel better in three days, a week or whenever. It's unfortunate. It's [my] turn to pitch, and I've never missed [a start]. But you've got to be honest with yourself and true to your team."

Kawakami, who has pitched to a 4.75 earned run average in his 16 big league appearances this season, had been 0-1 with a 4.29 earned run average in five starts for Triple-A Gwinnett.

The Japanese right-hander lost to the Marlins earlier in the year and is just 1-4 lifetime against them with a 5.55 ERA in five games, four of which have been starts.

Atlanta was denied a sweep in its four-game set with the New York Mets on Thursday, as it dropped a 4-2 decision in the finale on Thursday at Turner Field. Brian McCann went 3-for-4 with a solo home run while Martin Prado drove in the other run for the Braves, who had a five-game winning streak stopped.

Tim Hudson (15-6), who was named the National League Pitcher of the Month earlier in the day on Thursday, had a six-game winning streak halted as he was charged with four runs -- three earned -- on eight hits with a walk and four strikeouts over seven innings.

The loss shortened Atlanta's lead in the NL East to two games over Philadelphia, which held off Colorado on Thursday for a 12-11 win.

"It's tight out there," said Hudson about the playoff race. "We knew that the Phillies weren't going to go away. We just gotta go out there and keep playing and just keep doing what we do."

Florida, meanwhile, will need a strong showing this weekend if it wants to keep its fleeting postseason hopes alive. The Marlins enter the weekend set 10 games back of the Braves in the division and eight behind the wild card- leading Phillies.

The Marlins rolled to a 16-10 win against Washington on Wednesday, but the game will likely be remembered for a wild brawl that took place in the sixth inning when Nationals center fielder Nyjer Morgan charged the mound and punched Marlins pitcher Chris Volstad.

Both players were ejected.

Florida was ahead 15-5 with one out in the inning when Volstad threw a pitch behind Morgan, who was hit on the right side by an offering in the fourth frame. The Marlins were ahead 14-3 in the fourth, but Morgan stole second and third base during the inning.

In the sixth, though, Morgan became upset and immediately threw down his bat and charged the mound. Volstad tossed down his glove and Morgan connected with a left to the pitcher's neck.

Marlins first baseman Gaby Sanchez then raced in and delivered a clothes-line hit to Morgan, who immediately tumbled to the ground. Players for both teams scuffled near the mound and then Pat Listach, the third base coach for the Nationals, joined the fray by piling on Volstad and possibly throwing a punch.

"Obviously, he's not coming out there to talk," Volstad said. "I had to defend myself and not to get hurt."

Suspensions and fines should be handed out on Friday.

"I've been part of a few bench-clearings, and this one was pretty up there as far as the amount of intensity and physical actions on the field," Helms said. "It's going to happen. It's part of the game. It's not a bad thing, it's just going to happen, it doesn't happen often. Tonight was one of those nights where it got out of hand."

Heading to the hill for the Marlins this evening will be left-hander Andrew Miller, who has yet to record a decision in three appearances (one start) this season, but has pitched to a 4.50 ERA. Miller last pitched out of the bullpen on Monday against Washington and yielded a run in one inning of work.

Miller has faced the Braves six times (three starts) and is 2-0 against them with a 3.32 ERA.

On the injury front, the Marlins could get second baseman Dan Uggla back this weekend. Uggla, who has been hampered by a groin strain, is one home run shy of 30, which would make him the first second baseman in Major League history to reach the mark four seasons in a row.

He is 4-for-9 lifetime against Kawakami with a home run and three walks.

Atlanta has won seven of its 12 matchups with the Marlins this season.

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Big Ten Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Michigan State, Indiana
Work left to do: Illinois, Purdue, Michigan, Iowa

Behind the big two, the pecking order might be in a bit of flux. Has Michigan State passed Indiana after handling the Hoosiers in East Lansing? Where is Illinois in that mix? What looked like a four-big league last week could be morphing into five -- and even six is not unthinkable at this point if everything breaks right.

Should be in:

Michigan State [21-8 (8-6), RPI: 20, SOS: 15] The Spartans made it four-for-four on the homestand, a gigantic accomplishment that leaves them in extremely good shape. MSU is only 1-6 on the road and is at Michigan and at Wisconsin to close things out, meaning the date with the Wolverines on Tuesday looms very, very large. Beating Texas early will hold up well, as will the rout of Bradley and the win over BYU, but will 8-8 be enough? It very well could be, as the computer numbers are good, but why chance it?

Indiana [18-9 (8-6), RPI: 24, SOS: 32] Hmm ... good thing the last two are at Northwestern and home to Penn State, because IU might want to get both to feel completely safe after dropping its third in the last four, fading after halftime at Michigan State. Who knew the best nonconference win would be over Southern Illinois, which is a gift that keeps on giving for the Hoosiers. The win over Wisconsin also looks good on the mantel.

Work left to do:

Illinois [21-9 (9-6), RPI: 31, SOS: 25] A good performance at Penn State leaves the Illini in pretty good shape. Can they go to Iowa and take care of business to really look on their way? That's a huge game, as there is a possible cluster of teams that will end at 9-7. Illinois beat Bradley, but has lost to Xavier. A 9-7 mark and a semifinals trip in Chicago could be enough with the computer profile hanging in there, but it would be better not to mess around, clinching at least a tie for third.

Purdue [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 47, SOS: 28] Couldn't get it done at Iowa, but did win at Northwestern to put 9-7 squarely in sight. Where does that leave the Boilermakers, though? Even if they beat Minnesota and Northwestern at home, that won't help the computer numbers. Nonconference wins over Virginia, DePaul and Oklahoma are solid, but not spectacular. The Boilers very well might need an upset in the B10 quarters to have a legit claim.

Michigan [19-10 (7-7), RPI: 55, SOS: 53] Well, Michigan did what it needed to do, winning at Minnesota to take control of its fate. The Wolverines have Michigan State and an already-wrapped-up-the-league Ohio State at home to close, so the chances are there. Win both and we can talk. There is no marquee win yet in the profile, and the Wolverines were splattered in several games against name opponents. A mediocre computer profile fueled by a lack of road wins isn't helping, either.

Iowa [16-12 (8-6), RPI: 80, SOS: 64] For the sake of being complete, we'll add Iowa, this season's Stanford. It's plausible that the Hawkeyes could get to 10-6 (at Penn State, vs. Illinois left), but where does that leave them after a gruesome nonconference performance where the best win was over ... Toledo? Iowa State? Cornell?? If they get to 10-6, we can start to look at what they need to do in the B10 tourney, although my gut sense is that they would need to make the final and have knocked off Ohio State or Wisconsin on the way to have any real claim.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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