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09/01/2010 - Iowa City, IA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The ninth-ranked Iowa Hawkeyes lift the lid on the 2010 season this Saturday, as they play host to the Panthers of Eastern Illinois in the first-ever meeting between the two teams.
Eastern Illinois, which plays its football out of the Ohio Valley Conference and is ranked 18th in the initial Football Championship Subdivision poll sponsored by The Sportsbook Betting Lines and Fathead.com, is coming off an 8-4 season in which it won the OVC title with a 6-2 mark.
The Panthers are playing a FBS school for the 27th time, with their last win coming in 2004 against Eastern Michigan. Iowa is the highest ranked foe EIU has ever faced. The Panthers are coached by Bob Spoo, who took over the team in 1987 and has a career mark 140-113-1 as the fourth-longest tenured coach (same school) in Division I.
The Hawkeyes, under the direction of head coach Kirk Ferentz, went 11-2 (6-2 in the Big Ten Conference) in 2009, and returns a wealth of talent on both sides of the ball so it's understandable if fans are excited about the prospect of their beloved team challenging for both the Big Ten and BCS titles.
Like most coaches, Ferentz doesn't want his team looking past the Panthers in this opener, "They are a well coached football team, disciplined and they play hard. We expect a very tough contest. All we have to do is look back to last year's opener and I don't think we have to say much more than that just in terms of what's in front for us."
Eastern Illinois, picked by many to finish atop the OVC this season, boasts 15 returning starters, including senior RB Mon Williams (191 carries, 870 yards, nine TDs). Unfortunately, Williams will miss at least this game with a strained knee. In his absence, expect QB Brandon Large to shoulder much of the offensive burden, despite this being his first Division I start.
Running back Jimmy Potempa (32 catches in 2009) is the team's top returning pass catcher, and he can expect to see his workload increase with Williams on the shelf. The offensive line features just two returning starters in OG Eric Zink and C Willie Henderson.
Defensively, the Panthers should be fine once they get past this game as standout performers like corners C.J. James and Rashad Haynes, DE Perry Burge and starting LBs Nick Nasti (83 tackles last year), Cory Leman (63 tackles) and Gordy Kickels (62 stops) all have the talent and experience to help the team achieve its goals.
Iowa averaged 23.5 ppg in '09, and upping that figure will be paramount to the team reaching its full potential this season. The return of six starters on offense, including QB Ricky Stanzi and RB Adam Robinson (Iowa freshman-record 834 rushing yards last season), should help reach that goal. Stanzi isn't the flashiest signal-caller out there, and he will need to make better decisions with the ball this fall after tossing 15 INTs in 11 games in 2009.
Helping Stanzi make plays down the field is a deep receiving corps that Ferentz says should make the difference between a sub par offensive showing, and one that causes opposing defensive coordinators plenty of sleepless nights.
"I think we have a chance to be better in the passing game, and you know, when you have that kind of experience, you hope that's a by product of the good production."
On the defensive side of the ball, expect to see a whole lot of DE Adrian Clayborn, who in 2009 logged 11.5 sacks, 20 TFLs, four fumble recoveries and was named the MVP of the Orange Bowl.
In addition to Clayborn's contributions, the Hawkeyes, who were absolutely dominant on defense last season in allowing a paltry 15.4 points and 276.5 yards per game, expect to get consistent efforts from guys like LB Jeremiah Hunter (89 tackles) and standout safeties Brett Greenwood and Tyler Sash.
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BRITISH COLUMBIA LIONS (1-7) AT MONTREAL ALOUETTES (6-2)
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Indians recall P Carrasco, two others >>
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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting
So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.
Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?
If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)
Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).
In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.
Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.
| The Bubble Breakdown | |||
| CONFERENCE | LOCKS | SHOULD BE INS | AT-LARGES TAKEN (assuming no auto bid outlier) |
| ACC Betting Odds | 6 | 0 | 5 |
| Big East Betting Odds | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| Big Ten Betting Odds | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Big 12 Betting Odds | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| Pac-10 Betting Odds | 5 | 1 | 5 |
| SEC Betting Odds | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| MVC Betting Odds | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| MWC Betting Odds | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| TOTAL | 28 | 5 | 25 |
As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.
(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)
If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.
Atlantic Coast Conference
Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech
The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.
Work left to do:
Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.
Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).
Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.
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