Cubs, Mets kick off set at Wrigley Field

Baseball Betting Lines

09/03/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago Cubs will try to continue their strong play under interim manager Mike Quade this afternoon when they open a three-game series against the New York Mets at Wrigley Field.

The Cubs are 6-3 since Lou Piniella stepped down on August 22 and just took two of three from the Pittsburgh Pirates, including a 5-3 win in Wednesday's finale.

Kosuke Fukudome finished 3-for-3 with a pair of doubles, two runs scored and an RBI to lead the way, while Tyler Colvin, Micah Hoffpauir, Koyie Hill and Jeff Baker each knocked in a run in the victory.

Thomas Diamond (1-3) picked up his first major-league win, despite allowing two hits and two runs in 1 2/3 innings of relief. Starter Tom Gorzelanny exited after 2 2/3 innings when a line drive from Jose Tabata struck his left hand.

"It's always nice to get your first. I wish it would have happened a little sooner, but it happened and now I hope I can go out and get a few more," Diamond said of his inaugural victory.

Carlos Marmol recorded the final four outs, and fanned three in a scoreless ninth to earn his 25th save.

Today, the Cubs will turn to righty Randy Wells, who is coming off his first win in more than a month. Wells defeated the Cincinnati Reds last Saturday, holding them to a pair of runs and six hits in six innings to run his record to 6-12, while lowering his earned run average to 4.50.

He had been 0-5 in his last six starts and had not won since beating the St. Louis Cardinals back on July 23.

Wells did not get a decision the last time he faced the Mets, despite surrendering just a run in six innings, and is 0-1 in two starts against them with a 1.50 ERA.

The Mets, meanwhile, will turn to knuckleballer R.A. Dickey, who is 9-5 with a 2.57 ERA. Dickey was impressive in beating the Houston Astros on Sunday, allowing a run and six hits in six innings to match a career-high in wins he set with Texas in 2003.

This, though, will be his first-ever start against the Cubs. However, he is 3-0 against the NL Central and 3-1 in day games with a 2.13 ERA.

New York salvaged the finale of its four-game set with the Atlanta Braves on Thursday, but lost ace Johan Santana in the process. Santana left after five innings, but limited Atlanta to just one run in New York's 4-2 win.

Santana (11-9) exited the game with a strained pectoral muscle. Prior to his departure, the left-hander had given up the one run on three hits with a walk and three strikeouts to break a three-start losing streak.

"It just progressed through the game," said Santana about the injury. "It's not something that happened on one pitch. I warmed up fine, but I eventually started to feel the tightness. I was able to finish the inning and thought I was able to come back out, but they didn't want to take any chances."

David Wright hit a solo home run while Joaquin Arias also had an RBI for the Mets, who have won just three of their last nine.

"This is all that we can do is win today's game," said Wright. "As much as we would have liked to play better here, we did what we could control today and that was win today's game."

The Mets, who have won three of four versus the Cubs this season, should get shortstop Jose Reyes back this weekend along with outfielder Angel Pagan. Reyes has missed the last seven games with an oblique injury, while Pagan has been battling right wrist tendinitis.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.