Cavaliers seek upset of visiting Demon Deacons

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/28/2009 - Charlottesville, VA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 13th-ranked Wake Forest Demon Deacons embark on their final road trip of the regular season today, as they invade Charlottesville to tussle with the Virginia Cavaliers in ACC play at the John Paul Jones Arena.

The Deacons were in action just this past Thursday, when they picked up an 85-78 triumph over NC State. It was the third win in the past four games by WF, which remains in a three-way tie for third place in the ACC standings at 8-5. The Deacons, at 21-5 overall, now return to the road for two straight games, with the second bout coming at Maryland on Tuesday.

As for Virginia, it currently sits with the second worst record in the conference at 3-10, two games ahead of 1-12 Georgia Tech. Since knocking off Clemson and Virginia Tech in consecutive outings, the Cavs have dropped two straight decisions, including a 62-55 setback against Miami-Florida on Thursday. With the loss, the squad dipped to 9-15 overall and 8-7 at home.

In terms of the all-time series, Wake holds a 65-59 edge over Virginia and the Deacons have won the last two meetings in the rivalry.

The Demon Deacons dropped in 52.5 percent of their shots from the floor and 18-of-22 at the foul line, as they came away with an 85-78 win over NC State on Thursday. Wake also won the battle on the boards, 42-27, including a 13-7 edge on the offensive glass. James Johnson had a monster game for the Deacons, posting career-highs of 28 points and 18 rebounds. Ishmael Smith delivered 18 points off the bench, and Chas McFarland and Jeff Teague checked in with 15 and 12 points, respectively. Teague has been sensational for Wake this season and he is one of the top players in the conference, averaging a hardy 20.0 ppg, to go with 3.7 apg and 53 steals. Johnson turns in 14.8 ppg and a team- high 8.4 rpg, while Al-Farouq Aminu adds 12.6 ppg and 8.1 rpg to the mix. As a team, the Deacons are posting 82.5 ppg and 40.7 rpg, in addition to shooting 50.0 percent from the field.

The Cavs were guilty of 16 turnovers and those miscues proved costly, as Miami scored 22 points off them in a 62-55 decision on Thursday. Virginia shot a modest 40.0 percent from the floor and went 10-of-11 at the foul line, but it wasn't enough to compensate for the mistakes. Jeff Jones guided the team in defeat with 16 points, while Sylven Landesberg had 13 points and seven boards. Landesberg has been the Cavs' most productive players this season and he is generating a team-high 17.8 ppg, to go along with 6.1 rpg. Mike Scott, the team's top rebounder at 7.2 rpg, chips in with 10.5 ppg for Virginia, which is scoring 71.3 ppg as a team.

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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?

I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.

There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.

Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.

For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.

A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.

The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.

Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.

So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.

Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.

“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.

Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.

“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.

It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.

Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.

The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.

“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.

“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”

Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.

The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.

“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”

Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?

“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.